My Blog Entries
07/24/2007: Matt Lepsis -- Why he should be a probowler.
The media has acknowledged the overall quality of our offensive line for quite some time. That we always have a good run game with running backs that are mediocre to good is well known.
Of course, we aren't usually represented well in the probowl along our offensive line. Nalen has made the probowl five times and he has deserved it. I think that the reasoning has been mostly that he has been brains behind the orchestration of the Denver run game, but that's partially the problem. Denver's system is seen as purely a brains operation with the athletic skill necessary downplayed and it is seen as a run blocking system.
This is why a terrific offensive tackle like Matt Lepsis hasn't gotten much consideration as a probowler.
The thing is, Matt truly does deserve consideration. As a run blocker for sure, according to Football Outsiders, Denver ranked first around left end in yards per carry in both 2004 and 2005. Last year when Lepsis went down with injury, Denver ranked 30th. But, what's more telling is what happened in the transition year between him switching from right to left tackle. In 2003, we ranked first in yards per carry around right end. In 2004, we ranked 9th. In 2003, we ranked 12th around left end. That went up to first after Lepsis moved there. In 2002, Denver ranked 2nd around right end. In 2001, Denver ranked 2nd around right end.
In other words, since 2001, Denver has ranked either first or second around whichever end he was blocking . And last season without him, we dropped off to near the bottom of the league around that end.
But, that's not all.
Denver ranked third in the fewest sacks in the league in both 2004 and 2005. Both were years in which he was our starting left tackle. You see, people see the Broncos as a run blocking line, but as a pass blocking line, Denver isn't too shabby with Lepsis in. With Lepsis in, Denver was on pace for a similar performance this year. Since Lepsis was sidelined, Denver ended up ranking 13th.
People can make a case that Lepsis isn't large enough to fit into other schemes. Then I'd question whether some of the larger tackles that have less tangible success to their name are quick enough to fit within the Broncos scheme. I'd point to all of the very fast right defensive ends out there who make a living on the sloth of most offensive tackles and would point out that perhaps this is why Lepsis has such great success in both the passing game and the running game.
Matt Lepsis should at least be in the discussion for probowlers.
07/24/2007: Making a Case: Quality Safety Play
If you listen to the mainstream media, chances are that you've heard the opinion that John Lynch is "still effective", but that he's "Lost a step". Some will even go so far as to say, "He's a liability in coverage".
The popular opinion of Denver's safety play is that they are not above average. The popular opinion is that they are terrific in run support, but that they are a liability in coverage.
The problem is, this isn't even close to being true. Denver's safety play has been far above average. For example, did you know that last year Denver faced the fifth most pass attempts in the league? Well, we did, but guess what. Despite facing more attempts than most teams, Denver still allowed the seventh fewest passes over 20 yards. Furthermore, Denver allowed the fourth fewest passes over 40 yards.
In all, Denver wasn't beat deep all that often. Now, I'll grant that having the cornerback tandem of Champ Bailey and Darrent Williams likely helped our pass defense in this facet, but on the other hand, our defensive line hasn't been stellar the past couple of years.
Denver put up these statistics with some terrific cornerbacks, but even with terrific cornerbacks, if our safeties were the liabilities that they are made out to be, shouldn't they be getting beat more often considering how little pressure we've been getting on the quarterback?
The problem is that people's opinions are based on their expectation instead of their observation. People know that John Lynch is in the latter half of his thirties and not many football players have success at that age, so people assume that he must be slowing down, but there is no real reason to believe that this is actually the case.
KC Joyner of ESPN performs metrics on Safety play and his metrics support the notion that John Lynch isn't still just playing at a high level, but that he is playing at an ELITE level.
Our defense performed much worse once Nick Ferguson and Sam Brandon went down with injuries. Now, granted that the offenses faced were better around this time as well, but the dropoff can't be ignored. And again, KC Joyner's metrics show that Nick Ferguson played at an above average level for us.
Denver ranked first against #1 WRs last year according to Football Outsiders, seventh against #2 WRs and eleventh against #3/4 WRs. Fact of the matter is, we couldn't possibly dream of ranking that well against all of these reciever types with poor safety play and a poor defensive line. Our safety play compensated for our defensive line deficiencies.
Last year, Denver ranked 26th in sacks per pass attempt which was a great improvement over the ranking of 32nd from the year before.
But, our safeties are not the problem (at least not yet. They are still aging, ya know). If our young defensive linemen can make a quick impact, our defense should improve tremendously. Because we have an elite secondary with an unproven front seven.
If our defensive line makes the leap that we are hoping for and DJ Williams performs at a high level, our defense could excel. But, that's a big if.
08/04/2007: Spontaneous Batman Conversation
I was waiting in line for some Mexican food at first friday. I decided to have a random conversation with some random folks waiting in line. One of them started talking about a friend of his who is a literary major and was noticing that Batman villians often are "created" by being dropped in a vat of acid or some other industrial accident.
He thought that might be some sort of commentary by the artists of the Batman comics. I don't know the totality of the Batman legacy. I mean, I was able to research on Google and find out that Bob Kane was the creator while Bill Finger was instrumental in developing the character. Still, Batman premiered in 1939, so it goes without saying that a lot of artists had to have been involved and that it had to be something of an institution.
I found it funny that somebody would think of Batman as a commentary against industry when the hero of the comic is a billionare. It would surprise me if Bruce Wayne isn't at least something of an industrialist.
My idea was that maybe Bruce Wayne is a billionare who needs something to do, so he hires people to walk around his factory pushing people into vats of acid and making them into supervillians.
Or maybe it was actually commentary on the ludicrousness of our propensity for self propelled problems. Here the Batman is dedicating himself to stop these supervillians created by the same industry that he propogates. And he's oblivious to this fact.
After I said all of this, I got a funny response. That guy said, "My mind is literally blown."
It was a lot of fun.